Where will the changes be?

The holding stack and flightpath changes that NATS are proposing will affect flights leaving from and arriving at Luton and Stansted Airports.

You could be affected if you live in

• South Cambridgeshire
• North Hertfordshire
• North Essex
• East Suffolk

We cannot show you the map of the intended stack or air traffic routes on this site because NATS have told us to remove them. To see a map showing the location of the proposed new Luton hold stack visit the NATS site and enter your post code. [holding aircraft may be seen anywhere on or within this circuit and aircraft joining and leaving the hold (stacking zone) will also be seen in the adjacent areas]

The number of people who will be affected by the proposed changes is a matter for debate. The tables in the consultation document paint a rosy picture of fewer people being affected if the two current stacks for Luton and Stansted are changed to three new rural locations. Some detailed analysis of the National Statistics data from the 2001 census suggests that NATS is not being entirely accurate. The table in section E outlines the population for the existing and new hold stacks.

So NATS claim the total difference in populations beneath current and proposed holds is 22207 less. There is no mention of how this data was derived or what boundaries were included or excluded.

Checking the National Statistics data, the area under the new Luton hold stack and the new section of flight path has a total potential population affected of 41,836. Even just looking at a conservative view of the population immediately under the new Luton hold stack shown on the map in section E5, gives a potential affected population of 20,801.

Either way the estimates seem to be underestimated at best and misleading to the casual observer at worst. The consultation documents state that NATS has been forced to reach a compromise between conflicting interests. “Avoiding both densely populated areas and the surrounding countryside was not possible in airspace that is amongst the busiest in the world. As a result, requests for route changes tended to move routes away from centres of population to less populated countryside.”

How was this decision reached? The consultation papers list many groups who were consulted but the residents of the areas which will be blighted by these new flight paths have not been involved until the 11th hour.
In another article by Ben Webster in Feb 2008 in The Times he points out that:

Nats claims that 20% fewer people will be affected by noise from departing aircraft flying below 4,000ft.  But a table buried in the 400-page consultation document reveals that the number of people affected by 57 decibels, which the Government considers to cause significant disturbance, will more than double near Luton and will increase by 11% cent near London City and 9% near Stansted.

And gets the following admission from NATS

Jonathan Astill, head of airspace management for Nats, admitted that the same level of aircraft noise was likely to cause more disturbance in the countryside than in towns because there was more background noise in towns.